As Mike McCarthy enters make-or-break year, unprecedented scrutiny awaits Cowboys coach

Go ahead, people. Place your bets.

Mike McCarthy is in the fifth and final year of his contract – the lame-duck year – as Dallas Cowboys coach, and for a few days in January, it seemed real iffy that he’d make it this far.

McCarthy survived with his job after arguably the worst playoff loss in the storied franchise’s history – blasted, mind you, by his former team, the Green Bay Packers – with seemingly one last shot to win big.

Now, as the Cowboys’ season opener at the Cleveland Browns looms on Sept. 8, comes the drama of McCarthy being on the hot seat beneath the NFL’s most intense spotlight.

At least he has some prominent company. Dak Prescott is in the final year of his contract, too, although the difference is that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has repeatedly declared that he intends to keep his franchise quarterback in the fold – even more likely, given the fresh investment of a four-year, $136 million extension for star receiver CeeDee Lamb.

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For McCarthy, there is no such vote of confidence from Jerry.

It’s all-in…with no guarantees.

Here’s to thick skin, tunnel vision and blocking out the noise.

“It’s crazy, but the Cowboys coach and the Cowboys quarterback are going to be under more scrutiny than anybody in the NFL,” Tony Dungy, the Hall of Fame coach and analyst for NBC’s “Football Night in America,” told USA TODAY Sports. “That’s just the way it goes. But as far as the people in those positions, I don’t think they worry about it.”

Dungy, fired as Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach following the 2001 season, can relate to McCarthy’s situation. Although Dungy turned the Bucs from a laughingstock into a contender, his teams fizzled in the playoffs, which led to the speculation about Dungy’s job status dominating coverage as his final season progressed. The Bucs ultimately landed Jon Gruden as the successor who capped the 2002 season by winning a Super Bowl.

“I was going through that,” Dungy reflected of the 2001 campaign. “You’re hearing all the rumors. My agent’s saying, ‘They’re talking to this person and here’s what’s happening.’ Newspaper articles. It doesn’t even register. You know you’ve got a good team. It’s week to week, are we going to play our best? The pressure is trying to win. And that’s no different if all that’s there or not.”

Still, Dungy acknowledges that whatever the buzz was in Tampa more than two decades ago pales in some regards to McCarthy’s case. The Cowboys haven’t won a Super Bowl for their rabid fan base since the 1995 season – or even advanced to the NFC title game during that span – yet have remained as arguably the NFL’s biggest draw while continuing to escalate as the league’s most valuable franchise.

All of that adds to the scrutiny, with the Cowboys once again pegged for the maximum of six prime-time games this season.

“It’s more on a national level with them,” Dungy compared. “I don’t think anybody in Los Angeles cared about what Tony Dungy’s situation was in Tampa. The Cowboys are on the map. Every place you go, you’re going to hear it. It is a national story. But from Mike’s standpoint, you don’t even think about that.”

McCarthy, 60, led the Cowboys to 12-5 finishes in each of the past three regular seasons, with two NFC East titles. Clearly, there’s a stockpile of talent, which underscores the expectation for the coach to bring out the best of the talent. The 36 regular-season victories since 2021 are second only to the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (37), which is why Jones has used a basketball metaphor in maintaining that the Cowboys have been “hanging around the rim.”

But they’ve shot airballs in the playoffs, going 1-3 in the postseason under McCarthy, including two home losses in playoff openers.

Now what? It’s been a good week, highlighted by the return of Lamb, who led the NFL with 135 receptions in 2023 and brings the elite versatility that brings McCarthy’s X’s and O’s to life. The Cowboys also signed two veterans who can potentially have impact if they are close to previous versions of themselves. Dalvin Cook joins the running back committee, while defensive tackle Linval Joseph, listed at 323 pounds, could help fortify the front line of coordinator Mike Zimmer’s run defense.

Remember, they’re all in…to presumably win big again.

Yet the lame-duck storyline begs to hover as a constant. While McCarthy has hired a high-powered agent in Don Yee (who represents Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh, and negotiated several hefty contracts over the years for Tom Brady), the coach’s leverage with the Cowboys is TBD.

Jones maintained in March that it wasn’t “fait accompli” that he wouldn’t extend McCarthy’s contract before the season, yet that now seems to a longshot. Yee recently had a brief meeting with Stephen Jones, the Cowboys’ No. 2 football executive, but hasn’t met with Jerry Jones.

Having hired eight coaches since Tom Landry’s reign ended with the “Saturday Night Massacre” that christened the sale of the franchise in 1989, Jones is quite comfortable having a coach in the final year of his contract. He’s done it before. Maybe he sees it as motivational fuel.

During an interview with USA TODAY Sports in March, Jones bemoaned the “dead money” to pay off the contracts of fired coaches as a growing league issue.

Of McCarthy’s case, Jones said in March: “Most of America gets up and they don’t have it guaranteed in front of them. You’re going to write what you’re going to write, but when you ask me about not extending him, my answer is that most of America doesn’t have anything guaranteed down the road. Most folks don’t have guarantees.”

In any event, Prescott’s next contract – which could wind up in the $60 million per year range – is likely a bigger priority. Jones recently told Clarence Hill of ALLDLLS.com that he didn’t think a new contract for Prescott (playing out a four-year, $160 million pact) needed to come before the start of the regular season. He also spoke of the possibility of continuing negotiations with Prescott during the season.

Prescott, of course, is a valuable ally for McCarthy. Their bond was strengthened after McCarthy took over the play-calling last season, with Prescott responding to produce the most prolific season of his eight-year career, which included leading the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finishing second in balloting for the MVP honors that were awarded to Lamar Jackson.

And boy can they share in the heat that comes with playoff failures, given Prescott’s 2-5 career postseason mark and accompanying narrative.

Dungy, who led the Indianapolis Colts to a Super Bowl crown during the 2006 season – after multiple playoff setbacks – can imagine McCarthy’s mindset as another season approaches.

“You don’t worry about what the media thinks, what fans think,” Dungy said. “None of that matters. People don’t believe that, because they hear so much about it. ‘McCarthy’s under fire. What did Jerry say today?’ And you think he’s got to respond to all of that. You really don’t. You’re in this bubble of, ‘Hey, how are we going to get better? How are we going to win this next game?’ And you don’t worry about that. I was the most shocked person in the world when it happened, even though everybody in the world was telling me it was going to happen.”

Beyond McCarthy, Dungy feels empathy for the staff of assistant coaches also working on the final year of their contracts. In Tampa in the early 2000s, Dungy negotiated an extra year for the bulk of his assistant coaches, which made it quite the challenge to assemble a staff after he was quickly hired by the Colts.

McCarthy has insisted that he feels no extra pressure, that job insecurity is a reality of life for an NFL coach. He’s also urged his younger assistants to embrace a certain theme.

As he put it, “You have to bet on yourself.”